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Thursday, November 5th, 2009

Time Event
1:10p
I'm gonna wait till the stars come out

On to more mundane things: the monthly The Price Is Right report. You know, I started with the hypothesis that the second-spinner is the priveleged spot for the Showcase Showdown spinning of the big wheel, and the evidence of the first half-season I measured this pretty well smashed my notion by showing a marked preference for the third spinner. If I had started this month, or this season, I would have figured I was right to start with: for October 2009 the first spinner won 17 times, the second-place spinner 15 times, and the third-place spinner a mere eight times. Things are a little better-balanced looking at the season to date, where the first-place spinner has won 24 times, the second-place spinner 27 times, and third-place a mere 19 times.

I think most of this is the result of a freak week, the week of the 19th of October, when the first-place spinner won eight times, leaving just one win apiece to the second and third-place spinners. And it's not helped by the slightly freaky week of the 12th of October, when the third-place spinner got only one win too. The last week of October first place got only one win, so the freakishness is getting more evenly balanced.

There's a new record low winning spin for the Showcase Showdown, though: twice this past month the winning spin was 50 cents. One of those was on the modestly freaky Hallowen show (30 October, actually), when a three-way tie of 50 cents went to a spinoff (which was won by 80 cents). But on the 15th, a 50 cent spin won fair and square, against $1.45 and $0.45 spins.

On Showcase reveals, my old hypothesis about the second-revealed bid being the winner is dying even more viciously. For October, the first-revealed showcase has won 16 times and the second-revealed 4 times. For the season, first-revealed has won 28 times, and second-revealed 7 times. There've been no double overbids yet. Discounting cases where the second contestant overbid, forcing the issue, the first-revealed has won 18 times this season to 7 times for the second-revealed. There've been no double showcase winners yet either, although the Halloween show again had a weird set of Showcase bids. Go figure.

Trivia: The 1906 White Sox hit just .230. They won the World Series. Source: The Numbers Game: Baseball's Lifelong Fascination With Statistics, Alan Schwarz.

Currently Reading: The Influence Of Sea Power Upon History, 1660 - 1783, Alfred Thayer Mahan.

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